371 products in Books, Music, Movies & TV

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST  “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal   Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Humor y aventuras en esta nueva aventura de Mundodisco. Un mago moribundo cede su bastón -y por tanto su poder- a Eskarina, un recién nacido que, según los rituales admitidos, no puede ser mago sino bruja. Con el tiempo, el rito de iniciación se completa con un aprendizaje más formal en la Universidad Invisible, inefable centro de estudios esotéricos, donde el mago Simón hace gala de sus increíbles poderes. Juntos, Eskarina y Simón tendrán que hacer frente a una invasión de extrañas criaturas que amenazan con destruir el Mundodisco...

AN INSTANT #1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER! Never stop...Never forget...Just remember. Charlie Wynwood and Silas Nash have been best friends since they could walk. They've been in love since the age of fourteen. But as of this morning...they are complete strangers. Their first kiss, their first fight, the moment they fell in love...every memory has vanished. Now Charlie and Silas must work together to uncover the truth about what happened to them and why. But the more they learn about the couple they used to be...the more they question why they were ever together to begin with. Forgetting is terrifying, but remembering may be worse. Heart-stopping and utterly captivating, the complete Never Never series, now available in one volume, will leave readers breathless and believing in the power of love. Perfect for fans of: * Verity, Too Late and The Wives * New Adult and Coming of Age stories * Angsty, romantic suspense * First loves and second chances * Colleen Hoover, Tarryn Fisher, Mia Sheridan and Lucy Score Don't miss the bestselling romantic mystery— Now available in a stunning hardcover Collector's Edition featuring nine exclusive illustrations, a foil-stamped case, beautifully sprayed edges and custom designed endpapers!

What distinguishes the truly exceptional from the merely great? After five years of writing The Profile, Polina Marinova Pompliano has studied thousands of the most successful and interesting people in the world and examined how they reason their way through problems, unleash their creativity, and perform under extreme pressure. The highest performers don’t use tricks or hacks to achieve greatness. They use mental frameworks that fundamentally change the way they see the world. They’ve learned how to unlock their hidden genius in order to reach their full potential. This book will help you do the same. After learning from the world’s most successful people featured inside, you will have a mental toolkit to help you tackle thorny problems, navigate relationships, and use creativity and resilience in times of uncertainty.

Unlike what usually passes for economics in many classrooms, government, the media and elsewhere, Choice is an engaging and intriguing book that provides something quite unique: a genuine treatise on economics that instructs and entertains both economists and general readers. Drawing on the seminal volume by the “Austrian School” economist Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, and comparing classical and neoclassical approaches, Choice is a creative, comprehensive, and unusually lucid book on economic science and market processes. The book illuminates free economies as underpinning civilization, the folly of government central planning, the primacy of entrepreneurship and innovation, the nature of money and banking, the causes of the business cycle, the failures of government intervention, and more. As a result, Choice teaches economic principles and exposes economic fallacies, and any reader will learn both the important truths about economics and the crucial value of individual choice, entrepreneurship, and free markets.

- EDUCATOR’S CHOICE – Designed with quick bow response and ease of use in mind, our violin strings are a unique blend of warm tone, affordability and durability making them ideal for both new and experienced student violinists. - SOLID STEEL CORE – Prelude violin strings are manufactured using a solid steel core for maximum durability and warmest sound. Available in both full and fractional sizes, the Prelude line has an option for any age student. - MADE TO LAST – Solid steel construction and uniquely-designed sealed pouches, Prelude strings have an unparalleled protection from the elements that cause corrosion and are unaffected by temperature and humidity changes. - WARM TONE: Prelude violin strings have the warmest sound available in an affordable, solid steel core string design, making it the educator's preferred choice for student strings due to their unique blend of warm tone, durability, and value. - MADE IN THE USA – All D'Addario strings are designed, engineered and manufactured in the USA to the most stringent quality controls in the industry.

Style: Light Tension    Color: 4/4 Scale

Want a comfortable way to talk with your kids about pornography? This newly revised edition of the original bestseller from Defend Young Minds makes that daunting discussion easy! Good Pictures Bad Pictures is a read-aloud story about a mom and dad who explain what pornography is, why it’s dangerous, and how to reject it. Featuring easy-to-understand science and simple analogies, this internationally-acclaimed book engages young kids to porn-proof their own brains. With Good Pictures Bad Pictures, your child will never be caught off guard by disturbing videos or peer pressure! The 5-point CAN DO Plan teaches kids exactly what to do to protect their young minds when they see pornography. “I am so grateful for this book! It was a great way to talk to my children about pornography without that awkward, uncomfortable feeling.” Lisa Parents don’t need to wonder what to say--simply read Good Pictures Bad Pictures to your child and move forward with confidence! You can even use this book before beginning the sex talks! Check out these new features in the second edition."Let's Talk!" discussion questions at the end of each chapter help kids deepen their understanding so they’ll be even more prepared to reject pornography.All new Tips for Parents and Caregivers section offers practical advice for raising porn-proof kids in the digital age..The most up-to-date science provides kids with even more powerful arguments against pornography.A beautifully redesigned interior makes it easier and more fun to read!

In the beginning, there was Menger. It was his Principles of Economics that reformulated — and really rescued — economic science from the theoretical errors of the old classical school.Menger set out to elucidate the precise nature of economic value, and to root economics firmly in the real-world actions of individual human beings. In Principles of Economics, he advances the theory that the marginal utility of goods is the source of their value, rather than the labor inputs that went into making them. The implication of this theory is that the individual mind is the source of economic value — a point that touched off the marginalist revolution and started a departure from the flawed classical view of economics.For this reason, Carl Menger (1840–1921) is considered to be the founder of the Austrian School of economics. Principles of Economics is the book that Ludwig von Mises said turned him into a real economist. What's striking is how, nearly a century and a half later, the book still retains the incredible power of both its prose and its relentless logic.The Mises Institute's new edition features a new foreword by Peter G. Klein, which summarizes Menger's contribution and places him in the history of ideas. Klein also explains Menger's continued relevance in present times. F.A. Hayek contributes the introduction.Economics students still say that it is the best introduction to economic logic ever written. The book also deserves the status of a seminal contribution to science in general. Truly, no one can claim to be well read in economics without having mastered Menger's argument.To search for Mises Institute titles, enter a keyword and LvMI (short for Ludwig von Mises Institute); e.g., Depression LvMI

Immerse yourself in this meticulously crafted edition of the "Ethiopian Bible in English 88 Books" a comprehensive compilation that opens doors to the profound wisdom and spiritual heritage of Ethiopia. Discover the richness of the Ethiopian Bible in English Complete which includes the Apocrypha Complete, Psalms, Enoch, and the Lost Books of The Bible, allowing exploration of ancient texts omitted from standard editions, providing profound insights into Ethiopian religious tradition. Delve into the poetic beauty and spiritual depth with this unique edition offering for the first time in English access to all 88 books of the Ethiopian Bible: * Apocrypha complete: Esdras (III and IV), Tobit, Judith, Additions to the book of Esther, Wisdom of Solomon, Prologue to Wisdom of Jesus Son of Sirach, Baruch, Letter of Jeremiah, Prayer of Azariah, Susanna, Bel and the Dragon, Prayer of Manasseh, 1, 2 and 3 Meqabyan. * Old Testament: Genesis, Exodus, Leviticus, Numbers, Deuteronomy, Joshua, Judges, Ruth, 1 Samuel (I Kingdoms), 2 Samuel (II Kingdoms), 1 Kings (III Kingdoms), 2 Kings (IV Kingdoms), Chronicles 1 and 2, Jubilees, Enoch, Ezra (I Ezra), Nehemiah (II Ezra), Esther, Job, Psalms, Psalms 151, Proverbs Messale and Tagsas, Ecclesiastes, Song of Solomon, Isaiah, Jeremiah, Lamentations, Ezekiel, Daniel, Hosea, Joel, Amos, Obadiah, Jonah, Micah, Nahum, Habakkuk, Zephaniah, Haggai, Zechariah, Malachi. * New Testament: Matthew, Mark, Luke, John, Acts, Romans, Corinthians 1 ad 2, Galatians, Ephesians, Philippians, Colossians, Thessalonians 1 and 2, Timothy 1 and 2, Titus, Philemon, Hebrews, James, Peter 1 and 2, John 1, 2 and 3, Jude, Revelation, The First Epistle of Clement, The Second Epistle of Clement and The Book of Adam and Eve. Why Choose This Book? * Authentic translations in English ensuring the preservation of the original texts' integrity and nuance. * Easy-to-read font/typeface enhances readability for effortless immersion in the scriptures. * Enjoy a comprehensive collection encompassing all 88 books of the Ethiopian Bible, offering an immersive reading experience. Embark on a journey of spiritual discovery and scholarly exploration, enhance your understanding of ancient scripture, delve into profound wisdom, and experience the richness of Ethiopian religious heritage. Purchase your copy now and receive it comfortably at home. Your spiritual journey awaits!

- The information below is per-pack only - IN THE BOX: 50-foot XLR male to female microphone cable for XLR-compatible PA systems, speakers, and other sound equipment - CLEAR TRANSMISSION: All-copper conductors with inner copper spiral shielding to reduce noise interference - DURABLE DESIGN: Zinc alloy 3-pin connectors with nickeling; protective metal housing and flexible 6.0mm PVC jacket - USES: Designed for studio recording and live sound

Size: 50 Feet (Pack of 2)    Style: 1-Pack

On this edition the chart specification has been improved to show coloured light flashes. There has been general updating throughout.

- 1. ALTA CALIDAD: Hecho de excelente tecnología y materiales PP, duraderos y fuertes. - 2. CARACTERÍSTICA DE DISEÑO: diseño ergonómico, mantenga su mano en una posición de escritura más natural y cómoda. - 3. FÁCIL DE REEMPLAZAR: puede reemplazar la pata del pie del soporte del teclado dañada, defectuosa y que no funciona. - 4. APLICACIÓN: Adecuado para el teclado Logitech MK100 K100. - 5. PAQUETE: 4 patas de soporte para teclado.

Tamaño: MK100 K100