Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS: Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.” –Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink “The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.” –Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999 “Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.” –Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving “Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.” –Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate “We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.” –Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance “Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.” –National Review
AN INSTANT NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER "Everything I want in a thriller. Sexy, shocking, and tense with an ending I never saw coming. Jeneva Rose is the queen of twists."--Colleen Hoover, #1 New York Times bestselling author The highly anticipated new thriller from the New York Times bestselling author of The Perfect Marriage and One of Us Is Dead You've opened up your house and your heart to a total stranger ... What could possibly go wrong? Grace Evans, an overworked New Yorker looking for a total escape from her busy life, books an Airbnb on a ranch in the middle of Wyoming. When she arrives at the idyllic getaway, she's pleased to find that the owner is a handsome man by the name of Calvin Wells--and he's eager to introduce her to his easygoing way of life. But there are things Grace discovers that she's not too pleased about: A lack of cell phone service. A missing woman. And a feeling that something isn't right with the ranch. Despite her uneasiness, the two bond and start to fall for one another. However, as her departure date nears, things change for the worse. What began as a playful romance soon turns into a complicated web of lies. Grace grows wary of Calvin as his infatuation for her seems to have morphed to obsession. Calvin fears that Grace is hiding something from him--including her reason for staying at his ranch to begin with. Vacation flings typically end in heartbreak, but for Grace and Calvin, it'll be far more destructive.
- HONEST. Eris 3.5BT near field studio monitors deliver studio-quality, accurate sound perfect for music production, hi-fi audio listening, or multimedia reference. - EXPRESSIVE. Clear, accurate audio with a big low end — Eris 3.5BT's woven-composite woofers’ weave and nature result in tight bass that you can feel, as well as cleaner overall sound. - POWERFUL. Compact speakers that pack a punch — 50 Watts of Class AB dual amplification (25W per side) provide all the volume and loudness you want without sacrificing tonal balance or audio clarity. - BLUETOOTH 5.0 WIRELESS CONNECTIVITY. Ultra-reliable Bluetooth 5.0 delivers seamless integration with your other devices while flexible wired connection options ensure easy compatibility with virtually any monitoring setup – so you can plug in, pair up, and get to work without missing a beat. - ULTRA-WIDE LISTENING SWEET SPOT. The natural high-frequency response of the 1-inch low-mass, silk-dome transducers (tweeters) provide superior stereo imaging from nearly any listening angle. - ALL THE CONNECTIONS YOU NEED. ¼-inch TRS balanced inputs on the back panel for professional audio devices, unbalanced RCA inputs for consumer electronics, plus a convenient front-panel ⅛-inch TRS stereo aux input for your phone. - PRECISION-TUNE TO YOUR ROOM. High- and low-frequency tuning controls allow you to customize your audio output for your ears, room size, and speaker orientation. Whether on a desk, bookshelf, or next to a turntable or record player, Eris 3.5BT's produce clear, room-filling sound. - QUICK-SWITCH TO HEADPHONES. The easy-access front panel headphone output and built-in headphone amplifier allow for plug-and-play headphone media reference when needed. - ADD MORE LOW END. The 50W, 8-inch companion Eris Sub 8BT studio subwoofer delivers a massive low-frequency boost and Bluetooth connectivity to your Eris 3.5BT’s, creating a powerful 2.1 speaker system. - POWER SAVER MODE. Power-saving mode auto engages after 40 minutes of idle time.
Size: 3.5" BT Color: White
- HONEST. Eris 3.5 near field studio monitors deliver studio-quality, accurate sound perfect for music production, hi-fi audio listening, or multimedia reference. - EXPRESSIVE. Clear, accurate audio with a big low end — Eris 3.5's woven-composite woofers’ weave and nature result in tight bass that you can feel, as well as cleaner overall sound. - POWERFUL. Compact speakers that pack a punch — 50 Watts of Class AB dual amplification (25W per side) provide all the volume and loudness you want without sacrificing tonal balance or audio clarity. - ULTRA-WIDE LISTENING SWEET SPOT. The natural high-frequency response of the 1-inch low-mass, silk-dome transducers (tweeters) provide superior stereo imaging from nearly any listening angle. - ALL THE CONNECTIONS YOU NEED. ¼-inch TRS balanced inputs on the back panel for professional audio devices, unbalanced RCA inputs for consumer electronics, plus a convenient front-panel ⅛-inch TRS stereo aux input for your phone. - PRECISION-TUNE TO YOUR ROOM. High- and low-frequency tuning controls allow you to customize your audio output for your ears, room size, and speaker orientation. Whether on a desk, bookshelf, or next to a turntable or record player, Eris 3.5's produce clear, room-filling sound. - QUICK-SWITCH TO HEADPHONES. The easy-access front panel headphone output and built-in headphone amplifier allow for plug-and-play headphone media reference when needed. - ADD MORE LOW END & BLUETOOTH. The 50W, 8-inch companion Eris Sub 8BT studio subwoofer delivers a massive low-frequency boost and Bluetooth connectivity to your Eris 3.5’s, creating a powerful 2.1 speaker system. - POWER SAVER MODE. Power-saving mode auto engages after 40 minutes of idle time.
Size: 3.5" Color: White
Economist Bryan Caplan makes a bold case for unrestricted immigration in this fact-filled graphic nonfiction. American policy-makers have long been locked in a heated battle over whether, how many, and what kind of immigrants to allow to live and work in the country. Those in favor of welcoming more immigrants often cite humanitarian reasons, while those in favor of more restrictive laws argue the need to protect native citizens. But economist Bryan Caplan adds a new, compelling perspective to the immigration debate: He argues that opening all borders could eliminate absolute poverty worldwide and usher in a booming worldwide economy―greatly benefiting humanity. With a clear and conversational tone, exhaustive research, and vibrant illustrations by Zach Weinersmith, Open Borders makes the case for unrestricted immigration easy to follow and hard to deny.
- Perfecto para principiantes: Este juego de cuerdas clásico de nivel básico está diseñado específicamente para guitarristas principiantes con un equilibrio óptimo de calidez y proyección que es perfecto para estudiantes; Ideal para guitarras clásicas y guitaleles. - Tono cálido y duradero: este juego de nylon clásico tiene puntas atadas y contiene 3 agudos de nylon transparente y 3 bajos de nylon de cobre plateado para un tono cálido y duradero. - Cuerdas para todos los estilos: Desde jazz hasta metal pasando por rock, bluegrass, blues, folk y mucho más, fabricamos cuerdas de gran sonido para cada género y nivel, desde principiante hasta profesional, incluyendo cuerdas para bajo, acústicas, clásicas y de 12 cuerdas - Suena mejor, toca mejor: Compra toda nuestra colección de accesorios para guitarra, incluidos tensores, púas, correas, cejillas, afinadores, cables, fundas y estuches, además de cuerdas para banjo, mandolina, ukelele y mucho más. - Fabricadas en EE.UU.: Como el mayor y más respetado fabricante de accesorios musicales del mundo, las cuerdas de guitarra D'Addario se fabrican siguiendo las especificaciones más exigentes en nuestras vanguardistas instalaciones de producción de Nueva York.
Nombre de estilo: 1-Pack
- Plastic material hook clamp for moving head light, par light, spotlight etc, Threaded Bolt: 10mm - Made of Plastic. Load Capacity: 33lb / 15kg, Fit 3 Size Pipe Diameter: 1"(25 mm) 1-1/2"(38 mm) 2" (50mm / F34) - Using in stage, DJ, Bar, Pub, Event, Theatre, Disco....
Want a comfortable way to talk with your kids about pornography? This newly revised edition of the original bestseller from Defend Young Minds makes that daunting discussion easy! Good Pictures Bad Pictures is a read-aloud story about a mom and dad who explain what pornography is, why it’s dangerous, and how to reject it. Featuring easy-to-understand science and simple analogies, this internationally-acclaimed book engages young kids to porn-proof their own brains. With Good Pictures Bad Pictures, your child will never be caught off guard by disturbing videos or peer pressure! The 5-point CAN DO Plan™ teaches kids exactly what to do to protect their young minds when they see pornography. “I am so grateful for this book! It was a great way to talk to my children about pornography without that awkward, uncomfortable feeling.” Lisa Parents don’t need to wonder what to say--simply read Good Pictures Bad Pictures to your child and move forward with confidence! You can even use this book before beginning the sex talks! Check out these new features in the second edition. * "Let's Talk!" discussion questions at the end of each chapter help kids deepen their understanding so they’ll be even more prepared to reject pornography. * All new Tips for Parents and Caregivers section offers practical advice for raising porn-proof kids in the digital age.. * The most up-to-date science provides kids with even more powerful arguments against pornography. * A beautifully redesigned interior makes it easier and more fun to read!
- Las cuerdas Slinky de Ernie Ball son las elegidas por leyendas de la música de todo el mundo como Slash, Jimmy Page, Metallica, Eric Clapton y muchos más. - Las Mega Slinky se parecen a nuestro famoso juego Power Slinky pero con un pelín menos de tensión en las cuerdas más altas. - En paquete Element Shield que garantiza que tus cuerdas estarán igual de nuevas que cuando se fabricaron. - Tono alegre y equilibrado. - Fabricación en California (EE. UU.) con los materiales más recientes y de la mejor calidad.
Color: Mega (10.5-48) Nombre de estilo: 1 paquete
The Sunday Times top ten bestseller. Edward Snowden, the man who risked everything to expose the US government’s system of mass surveillance, reveals for the first time the story of his life, including how he helped to build that system and what motivated him to try to bring it down. In 2013, twenty-nine-year-old Edward Snowden shocked the world when he broke with the American intelligence establishment and revealed that the United States government was secretly pursuing the means to collect every single phone call, text message, and email. The result would be an unprecedented system of mass surveillance with the ability to pry into the private lives of every person on earth. Here, Snowden reveals for the very first time how he helped to build this system and why he was moved to expose it. Spanning the bucolic Beltway suburbs of his childhood and the clandestine CIA and NSA postings of his adulthood, Permanent Record is the extraordinary account of a bright young man who grew up online – a man who became a spy, a whistleblower, and, in exile, the Internet’s conscience. Written with wit, grace, passion, and an unflinching candor, Permanent Record is a crucial memoir of our digital age. 'A riveting account . . . Reads like a literary thriller' - New York Times
3 Years - Daisy Robin & Me Starter Green (pack)