545 products in Books, Music, Movies & TV

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST  “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal   Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

- 1. ALTA CALIDAD: Hecho de excelente tecnología y materiales PP, duraderos y fuertes. - 2. CARACTERÍSTICA DE DISEÑO: diseño ergonómico, mantenga su mano en una posición de escritura más natural y cómoda. - 3. FÁCIL DE REEMPLAZAR: puede reemplazar la pata del pie del soporte del teclado dañada, defectuosa y que no funciona. - 4. APLICACIÓN: Adecuado para el teclado Logitech K120. - 5. PAQUETE: 4 patas de soporte para teclado.

Tamaño: K120

- Las cuerdas Slinky de Ernie Ball son las elegidas por leyendas de la música de todo el mundo como Slash, Jimmy Page, Metallica, Eric Clapton y muchos más. - Las Extra Slinky ofrecen una tensión extraligera para tocar de forma rápida y sencilla por todo el diapasón. - En paquete Element Shield que garantiza que tus cuerdas estarán igual de nuevas que cuando se fabricaron. - Tono alegre y equilibrado. - Fabricación en California (EE. UU.) con los materiales más recientes y de la mejor calidad.

Color: Extra (8-38)    Nombre de estilo: 1 paquete

This little book was written to accomplish something big: economic literacy. It is intentionally kept very short to be inviting rather than intimidating. You will gain life-changing understanding of how the economy works in practically no time. Per Bylund will make you excited about what economics has to offer. Because economic literacy is mind-opening. Sound economic reasoning is an enormously powerful tool for understanding both the economy and society. Economic literacy uncovers what is going on under the surface and why things work out as they do. There is no magic to it. In fact, economic literacy is necessary to properly understand the world. Short, direct, axiomatically unassailable, and devastating to the mythology of modern economics. This book not only promote Mises' views, but refutes and attacks the tragicomic orthodoxy of today’s economics mainstream.

Desmontando la leyenda negra desde Bartolomé de las Casas hasta el separatismo catalán. «En Madre patria, el profesor Marcelo Gullo Omodeo demuestra que lo que está pasando ahora en España, en su contexto histórico y geográfico, es imposible de separar de la América hispana. Las cuentas pendientes son las mismas: afianzar las democracias y conjurar la inestabilidad territorial, cara y cruz de la misma moneda. Sorprende que el autor viva la profunda crisis que España atraviesa con tanta implicación y más sentido de la responsabilidad que muchos españoles». María Elvira Roca Barea En este monumental libro, Marcelo Gullo Omodeo demuestra que la leyenda negra fue la obra más genial del marketing político británico. Que, de manera inconcebible, los españoles se han creído la historia de España e Hispanoamérica que escribieron sus enemigos tradicionales, y se avergüenzan de un pasado del que deberían sentirse orgullosos. Que Hernán Cortés no fue el conquistador de México, sino el libertador de cientos de pueblos indígenas que estaban sometidos al imperialismo más feroz que ha conocido la historia de la humanidad: el de los aztecas. Que no fueron Pizarro y el puñado de españoles que lo acompañaban los que pusieron fin al imperialismo totalitario de los incas, sino los indios huancas, los chachapoyas y los huaylas. Que las masas indígenas en Colombia, Ecuador y Perú se mantuvieron fieles a la Corona española hasta el final. Que los libertadores Simón Bolívar y José de San Martín no quisieron romper de forma absoluta los vínculos que unían a América con España, sino que buscaron con todas sus fuerzas la creación de un gran imperio constitucional hispanocriollo con capital en Madrid. O que la responsabilidad de la disolución del Imperio español la tuvo Fernando VII, que prefirió estar preso en Europa y no libre en América. Concluye el autor señalando que nada separa a España de América, ni a América de España, salvo la mentira y la falsificación de la historia, y que el futuro de ambas depende de que sean capaces de desterrar para siempre el mito de la leyenda negra de la conquista española de América.

- 【Whole Separate Bags Designed】Whole divider that can be taken out, Put it in, 18 layers for All kinds of Cables& Accessories. Double compartment mesh pocket on the cover, Another 2 big zipper pocket outside, are used to hold small items of any size - 【Heavy Duty Material】Made by Nylon, With Pearl cotton Around. Anti-fall, Scratch-resistant and Durable, Good Protection. Strong webbed handles, Padded shoulder strap，Easy to carry everywhere.It is also sturdy, has a comfortable carry handle and a shoulder strap which means you could carry it on your shoulder and take another item at the same time if you wished - 【Great Organizer】Extra Large Travel Gig Band Cable File Bag:30"x11"x14.5".You can keep all the cables seperate for quicker set up and break down times and this bag is perfect for that.This is probably a great bag to use for small accessory cables and effect boxes, Also for mic cables or reasonable length power cables - 【Multi Function】It can help you cut gig setup and teardown time a lot. Having all my cables in exactly the right place and the same place each time, it will be much faster setup and teardown. and it can help you reduce another bag or any other accessaories - 【For Travel】Travel with Ease and Style: This travel file holder will keep all your important things organized, in one place and ready to go. Great for the office to keep everything within reach

Color: Black-Grey   

- Includes 3 individually wrapped sets. - Ernie Ball Slinkys are played by legends around the world including Slash, Jimmy Page, Metallica, Eric Clapton, and more. - Premium materials and craftsmanship ensure reliable, long-lasting guitar strings, perfect for professionals and beginners alike. - For decades, Slinkys have provided players with exceptional tone and consistency across the entire fretboard. - Extra Slinky brings extra light tension for fast and easy play across the fretboard.

Color: Extra (8-38)    Style: 3-Pack

- IN THE BOX: 15-foot XLR male to female microphone cable (2-pack) for XLR-compatible PA systems, speakers, and other sound equipment - CLEAR TRANSMISSION: All-copper conductors with inner copper spiral shielding to reduce noise interference - DURABLE DESIGN: Zinc alloy 3-pin connectors with nickeling; protective metal housing and flexible 6.0mm PVC jacket - USES: Designed for studio recording and live sound

Size: 15 Feet    Style: 2-Pack

- Have the best-possible interactions with your peers, as if you were in the same room with Yeti, C922x Pro and Litra Glow, the ultimate set of tools to look and sound your best in every video-call - Yeti’s legendary Blue broadcast audio quality will make you sound incredibly clear during all your meetings - Yeti’s legendary Blue broadcast audio quality will make you sound incredibly clear during all your meetings - Litra Glow’s brilliant, daylight balanced LED light will bring premium lightning to your desktop, fast - With Blue VO!CE, block out unwanted noise and craft the perfect vocal sound for your work needs - Full HD glass lens and premium autofocus deliver razor sharp, clear video in consistent high definition - Litra Glow’s TrueSoft technology ensures you always look your best, delivering balanced, full-spectrum light with cinematic color accuracy for natural skin tones with no harsh shadows

- Includes 3 individually wrapped sets. - Ernie Ball Slinkys are played by legends around the world including Slash, Jimmy Page, Metallica, Eric Clapton, and more. - Beefy Slinky’s 11-54 gauge is optimal for detuning. - For decades, Slinkys have provided players with exceptional tone and consistency across the entire fretboard. - Crafted in the USA with the freshest and finest materials.

Color: Beefy (11-54)    Style: 3-Pack

- Blue Yeti USB Gaming Microphone: Elevate your gaming with this Blue Yeti USB microphone bundle—featuring the iconic mic perfect as a streaming microphone for pc gaming and microphone for podcasting. - Custom Blue Yeti Pop Filter: Keep your stream clean with the included custom Blue Yeti microphone pop filter. - Exclusive Streamlabs Themes: Give your game stream a custom look with three exclusive downloadable Streamlabs themes; unlock code included with this gaming microphone for streaming. - Blue VOICE Effects: Yeti USB condenser microphone improves your sound and stream with fun vocal effects, HD samples, and studio tools like EQ, limiter and Noise Removal, suitable as a podcast microphone or computer microphone for desktop. - Advanced Voice Modulation: From Electrobeast to Helium Chipmunk, the podcasting microphone or YouTube microphone can alter, morph and transform your voice to excite and entertain your stream audience.

- Includes 3 individually wrapped sets. - Ernie Ball Slinkys are played by legends around the world including Slash, Jimmy Page, Metallica, Eric Clapton, and more. - Not Even Slinky’s 12-56 gauge is optimal for detuning. - For decades, Slinkys have provided players with exceptional tone and consistency across the entire fretboard. - Crafted in the USA with the freshest and finest materials.

Color: Not Even (12-56)    Style: 3-Pack