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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST  “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal   Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

In the beginning, there was Menger. It was his Principles of Economics that reformulated — and really rescued — economic science from the theoretical errors of the old classical school.Menger set out to elucidate the precise nature of economic value, and to root economics firmly in the real-world actions of individual human beings. In Principles of Economics, he advances the theory that the marginal utility of goods is the source of their value, rather than the labor inputs that went into making them. The implication of this theory is that the individual mind is the source of economic value — a point that touched off the marginalist revolution and started a departure from the flawed classical view of economics.For this reason, Carl Menger (1840–1921) is considered to be the founder of the Austrian School of economics. Principles of Economics is the book that Ludwig von Mises said turned him into a real economist. What's striking is how, nearly a century and a half later, the book still retains the incredible power of both its prose and its relentless logic.The Mises Institute's new edition features a new foreword by Peter G. Klein, which summarizes Menger's contribution and places him in the history of ideas. Klein also explains Menger's continued relevance in present times. F.A. Hayek contributes the introduction.Economics students still say that it is the best introduction to economic logic ever written. The book also deserves the status of a seminal contribution to science in general. Truly, no one can claim to be well read in economics without having mastered Menger's argument.To search for Mises Institute titles, enter a keyword and LvMI (short for Ludwig von Mises Institute); e.g., Depression LvMI

Immerse yourself in this meticulously crafted edition of the "Ethiopian Bible in English 88 Books" a comprehensive compilation that opens doors to the profound wisdom and spiritual heritage of Ethiopia. Discover the richness of the Ethiopian Bible in English Complete which includes the Apocrypha Complete, Psalms, Enoch, and the Lost Books of The Bible, allowing exploration of ancient texts omitted from standard editions, providing profound insights into Ethiopian religious tradition. Delve into the poetic beauty and spiritual depth with this unique edition offering for the first time in English access to all 88 books of the Ethiopian Bible: * Apocrypha complete: Esdras (III and IV), Tobit, Judith, Additions to the book of Esther, Wisdom of Solomon, Prologue to Wisdom of Jesus Son of Sirach, Baruch, Letter of Jeremiah, Prayer of Azariah, Susanna, Bel and the Dragon, Prayer of Manasseh, 1, 2 and 3 Meqabyan. * Old Testament: Genesis, Exodus, Leviticus, Numbers, Deuteronomy, Joshua, Judges, Ruth, 1 Samuel (I Kingdoms), 2 Samuel (II Kingdoms), 1 Kings (III Kingdoms), 2 Kings (IV Kingdoms), Chronicles 1 and 2, Jubilees, Enoch, Ezra (I Ezra), Nehemiah (II Ezra), Esther, Job, Psalms, Psalms 151, Proverbs Messale and Tagsas, Ecclesiastes, Song of Solomon, Isaiah, Jeremiah, Lamentations, Ezekiel, Daniel, Hosea, Joel, Amos, Obadiah, Jonah, Micah, Nahum, Habakkuk, Zephaniah, Haggai, Zechariah, Malachi. * New Testament: Matthew, Mark, Luke, John, Acts, Romans, Corinthians 1 ad 2, Galatians, Ephesians, Philippians, Colossians, Thessalonians 1 and 2, Timothy 1 and 2, Titus, Philemon, Hebrews, James, Peter 1 and 2, John 1, 2 and 3, Jude, Revelation, The First Epistle of Clement, The Second Epistle of Clement and The Book of Adam and Eve. Why Choose This Book? * Authentic translations in English ensuring the preservation of the original texts' integrity and nuance. * Easy-to-read font/typeface enhances readability for effortless immersion in the scriptures. * Enjoy a comprehensive collection encompassing all 88 books of the Ethiopian Bible, offering an immersive reading experience. Embark on a journey of spiritual discovery and scholarly exploration, enhance your understanding of ancient scripture, delve into profound wisdom, and experience the richness of Ethiopian religious heritage. Purchase your copy now and receive it comfortably at home. Your spiritual journey awaits!

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Transform Your Life with Dale Carnegie's Timeless Classic Are you ready to unlock the secrets to personal and professional success? Dale Carnegie's bestselling masterpiece, How to Win Friends & Influence People, has been helping millions of readers worldwide for decades-and now it's your turn! This life-changing guide is packed with actionable strategies to help you: Build meaningful relationships that expand your social and professional circle. Polish your communication skills to express ideas with clarity and confidence. Gain trust and influence others without creating resentment. Overcome challenges and develop the mental strength to stay motivated. What You'll Learn Master the Art of People Skills Discover Carnegie's proven techniques to handle people with ease, make a lasting impression, and win them over to your way of thinking. From fostering friendships to becoming a respected leader, this book provides all the tools you need. Timeless Principles for Success Learn how "You can make more friends in two months by becoming interested in other people than you can in two years by trying to get other people interested in you." These principles, just as relevant today as when they were first published, will help you navigate both personal and professional settings. Achieve Your Goals with Confidence Whether it's expanding your client base, earning more, or simply feeling more accomplished, Carnegie's step-by-step approach will make success seem effortless.

La labor -crucial- de Menger en la historia del pensamiento económico se desarrolló en una doble vertiente. Por un lado, en el enfoque subjetivista e individualista -el individualismo metodológico- de la teoría del valor y de los precios y, en general, de las diversas categorías económicas. Fruto de este enfoque fueron sus Principios de Economía Política que, junto con la Theory of Political Economy de Jevons (Walras vino más tarde), constituyeron el arranque de lo que se ha dado en llamar la revolución marginalista en teoría económica. La otra gran aportación de Menger fue su defensa de la teoría frente a las dominantes corrientes positivistas e historicistas. Su lúcida participación en la gran polémica sobre el método -la Methodenstreit– se concretó en uno de los más sugestivos libros sobre metodología de las ciencias sociales, sus famosas Untersuchungen. En palabras de Hayek, para los historiadores resulta incuestionable que la posición poco menos que excepcional alcanzada por la Escuela Austriaca en el proceso del desarrollo de la Economía política se debe casi en su totalidad a los fundamentos sobre los que la asentó este gran economista, aunque la fama de la Escuela cara al exterior y el desarrollo de algunas partes esenciales del sistema se debieran a sus brillantes seguidores como Eugen von Böhm-Waberk, Friedrich von Wieser, Ludwig von Mises [y el propio Hayek]. En relación concretamente con la presente obra, Knut Wicksell no dudó en afirmar que «desde los Principios de Ricardo ninguna obra ha tenido tan gran influencia sobre el desarrollo de la ciencia económica como los Principios de Menger».

Un mundo feliz es un clásico de la literatura del siglo XX, una sombría metáfora de un futuro posible. Los peores vaticinios del capitalismo se han cumplido: triunfan los dioses del consumo y la comodidad, y el orbe se divide en diez zonas en apariencia seguras y estables. Los humanos ya no procrean, el sexo se ha convertido solo en una diversión y las letras del alfabeto griego se han pervertido para clasificar a los seres humanos por castas. Todos aceptan su lugar en la nueva jerarquía social, perfectamente ordenada. Los valores humanos esenciales no tienen cabida en este mundo y los habitantes se crean in vitro con una técnica concebida a imagen y semejanza de una cadena de montaje. El soma, la droga por excelencia en este mundo distópico que propone Huxley, ayuda a los habitantes a escapar de la rutina. A cambio de este orden pulcro, la libertad de expresión y el pensamiento crítico han sido erradicados. Bernard Marx, el protagonista de la novela, inconformista e inteligente, deberá probar los límites de la sociedad que lo ha engendrado, iniciando un viaje más allá de las fronteras distópicas de su universo. La crítica ha dicho: «Según los ojos con que se mire, Un mundo feliz retrata una utopía perfecta o su horrendo opuesto, una distopía: sus hermosos habitantes viven seguros y libres de enfermedades y preocupaciones, pero lo hacen de un modo que, queremos creer, sería inaceptable para nosotros.» Margaret Atwood «Aldous Huxley fue un hombre extraordinariamente profético, no hay otro novelista en el siglo XX que haya escrito una guía más sagaz del futuro.» J.G. Ballard «Un mundo feliz también ha conservado su mordacidad satírica y una expresión de gran impacto aforístico, con un vívido sentido del poder del lenguaje y de las ideas en una sociedad humana cambiante.» Robert McCrum, The Guardian

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The Art of War by Sun Tzu is one of the most influential works ever written on strategy, leadership, warfare, and decision-making. Composed in ancient China, this timeless classic presents concise principles for understanding conflict, evaluating opponents, planning effectively, and achieving objectives through intelligence, preparation, and disciplined action. Rather than focusing only on battlefield tactics, The Art of War explores how careful observation, adaptability, timing, deception, and strategic thinking can determine success before conflict begins. Sun Tzu emphasizes the importance of knowing both yourself and your opponent, choosing battles wisely, using resources efficiently, and seeking victory with the least unnecessary struggle. Its teachings extend far beyond military history, making the book highly relevant to business strategy, leadership, negotiation, competitive strategy, conflict resolution, and personal development. Through direct and memorable insights, Sun Tzu encourages readers to replace impulsive action with foresight, understand changing circumstances, and use intelligence and positioning to gain an advantage. Concise, practical, and deeply thought-provoking, The Art of War remains an enduring strategy and leadership classic for executives, entrepreneurs, students, military history readers, and anyone interested in strategic thinking. Its lessons on planning, adaptability, discipline, influence, competition, and self-knowledge continue to shape approaches to leadership and decision-making across the modern world. Why should readers pick this book? * A Timeless Strategy Classic: Discover Sun Tzu's influential principles on planning, leadership, competition, warfare, and achieving success through intelligent strategy. * Lessons Beyond the Battlefield: Apply enduring ideas about negotiation, decision-making, adaptability, timing, influence, and conflict resolution to business and everyday challenges. * Essential Reading for Strategic Thinkers: Ideal for leaders, entrepreneurs, professionals, students, military history enthusiasts, and readers interested in personal development and competitive strategy. Key Themes * Strategy & Planning: Learn how preparation, careful analysis, positioning, and foresight can create advantages before action is taken. * Adaptability & Deception: Explore the importance of responding to changing conditions, understanding perception, and keeping opponents uncertain. * Leadership & Self-Knowledge: Examine discipline, judgment, confidence, and the value of understanding both your own strengths and those of your opponent.

- PROFESSIONAL POP FILTER - PROAR upgraded microphone pop filter features thick filter sponge, which can efficiently reduce plosives, wind interference and saliva spraying during recording or podcasting and help you get a clear and loud sound.Professional pop filter great for Blue Yeti, Blue Snowball, Hyperx Quadcast, Shure, rode podmic and other microphone - OUTPUT CLEARER SOUND - The pop filter for mic helps block any hisses, pops or thuds to provide you with clean audio essential to creating professional content.Banish the dreaded hissing and lisping sounds that come along with pronouncing the letter "S" and blocks those ugly "plosives" that follow the sounds of "B" and "P" - MULTI-SCENE APPLICATION - If you’re a singer, vlogger, voiceover artist or podcast host, you want your voice to be heard.Mic pop filter to immediately improve the sound of your vocal recordings! The pop filter mask shied is essential tool for recording, gaming, podcasting, speaking or singing - ENHANCED FLEXIBLE GOOSENECK - The wind pop screen has a flexible 360° gooseneck. Flexible pipe made of carbon steel, perfect flexibility. The enhanced metal gooseneck holder fully supports the filter's weight and keep it in place. You can adjust the angle and distance between the screen and the microphone - EASY TO ASSEMBLE - The mic filter designed for stable and ultra-secure mounting.The adjustable screw rotating clamp with scratch-proof gripper can secure a variety of tubular mounting booms or microphone stands, thus preventing your devices from damage. Adjustable clasp can fit on surfaces up to 1.96 inchs

The story of the idealists, technologists, and opportunists fighting to bring cryptocurrency to the masses. In their short history, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have gone through booms, busts, and internecine wars, recently reaching a market valuation of more than $2 trillion. The central promise of crypto endures—vast fortunes made from decentralized networks not controlled by any single entity and not yet regulated by many governments. The recent growth of crypto would have been all but impossible if not for a brilliant young man named Vitalik Buterin and his creation: Ethereum. In this book, Laura Shin takes readers inside the founding of this novel cryptocurrency network, which enabled users to launch their own new coins, thus creating a new crypto fever. She introduces readers to larger-than-life characters like Buterin, the Web3 wunderkind; his short-lived CEO, Charles Hoskinson; and Joe Lubin, a former Goldman Sachs VP who became one of crypto’s most well-known billionaires. Sparks fly as these outsized personalities fight for their piece of a seemingly limitless new business opportunity. This fascinating book shows the crypto market for what it really is: a deeply personal struggle to influence the coming revolution in money, culture, and power.

An eccentric classic of Zen poetry When Zen master Ikkyu Sojun (1394-1481) was appointed headmaster of the great temple at Kyoto, he lasted nine days before denouncing the rampant hypocrisy he saw among the monks there. He in turn invited them to look for him in the sake parlors of the Pleasure Quarters. A Zen monk-poet-calligrapher-musician, he dared to write about the joys of erotic love, along with more traditional Zen themes. He was an eccentric and genius who dared to defy authority and despised corruption. Although he lived during times plagued by war, famine, rioting, and religious upheaval, his writing and music prevailed, influencing Japanese culture to this day. "Ikkyu scandalized the Zen community of his day and is likely to scandalize some readers even now—his short poems are simultaneously bawdy, abrupt, vulgar, and reverential... It is impossible not to love the velocity and variety of his verse."—The Philadelphia Inquirer "Stephen Berg is exactly the right poet to have translated these poems."—Hayden Carruth, The Hudson Review "A deeply sensual man, Ikkyu had little patience for the fussiness of monastic life and ritual... What is especially appealing about Ikkyu's poetry is the way his sensuality infuses his Zen sensibility."—American Book Review Stephen Berg (1934-2014) was the founder and editor of American Poetry Review. Also available by Stephen Berg Steel Cricket PB $16.00, 1-55659-075-X • CUSA New & Selected Poems PB $12.00, 1-55659-043-1 • CUSA