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Color: Matte Petg Black+white+red+blue    Size: 1 kg

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST  “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal   Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

In the beginning, there was Menger. It was his Principles of Economics that reformulated — and really rescued — economic science from the theoretical errors of the old classical school.Menger set out to elucidate the precise nature of economic value, and to root economics firmly in the real-world actions of individual human beings. In Principles of Economics, he advances the theory that the marginal utility of goods is the source of their value, rather than the labor inputs that went into making them. The implication of this theory is that the individual mind is the source of economic value — a point that touched off the marginalist revolution and started a departure from the flawed classical view of economics.For this reason, Carl Menger (1840–1921) is considered to be the founder of the Austrian School of economics. Principles of Economics is the book that Ludwig von Mises said turned him into a real economist. What's striking is how, nearly a century and a half later, the book still retains the incredible power of both its prose and its relentless logic.The Mises Institute's new edition features a new foreword by Peter G. Klein, which summarizes Menger's contribution and places him in the history of ideas. Klein also explains Menger's continued relevance in present times. F.A. Hayek contributes the introduction.Economics students still say that it is the best introduction to economic logic ever written. The book also deserves the status of a seminal contribution to science in general. Truly, no one can claim to be well read in economics without having mastered Menger's argument.To search for Mises Institute titles, enter a keyword and LvMI (short for Ludwig von Mises Institute); e.g., Depression LvMI

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- BILLIONS OF BUTTS WIPED: We make flushable wipes—billions of 'em. We started this hole revolution against toilet paper from our apartment and now wipe over 1 billion butts every year. So join us. You'll have never felt so fresh after that morning coffee - EXTRA LARGE FLUSHABLE WIPES: When it comes to flushable wipes, size matters. And we're big. Because nobody wants a little wipe after a big burrito - FLUSHABLE & PLANT SOURCED FIBERS: Our wipes are made with plastic free & plant sourced fibers. Unlike baby wipes, DUDE Wipes are sewer and septic-safe. Say goodbye to toilet paper and say hello to DUDE flushable wet wipes for the whole family - BEST CLEAN PANTS DOWN: Made with 99% water and plant-based ingredients, DUDE wipes are unscented, hypoallergenic, alcohol-free, and paraben-free. They're also soaked with Aloe Vera and Vitamin E to protect your most sensitive skin - FROM THE CREATORS OF DUDE WIPES: With billions of DUDE Wipes sold, we promise you we know our way room around the toilet; So join us as the revolution continues with DUDE Bombs, you'll have never felt so fresh after that morning coffee

Scent: Fragrance Free    Size: 48 Count (Pack of 1)

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Color: Matte Petg Black 4 Rolls    Size: 1 kg

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- 【Upgraded Quick Setup Turtle Base】 Featured with a revolutionary spring ring locking mechanism, our light stand base enables the chassis legs to pop up by gravity in seconds. All you need to do is to pull the locking sleeve on the top of the base. The three legged structure provides stability to hold your photography equipment - 【Durable Reinforced Rod】 Made of industry grade stainless steel, the central pole of this photography C stand is thickened and forged with large diameters of 1.2in (30mm), 1.4in (35mm), and 1.6in (40mm), delivering a reliable central bearing with longer service time and a maximum load capacity of 44lb/20kg - 【Versatile Arm with High Load Capacity】 The 4.2ft (127cm) holding arm boasts a maximum load capacity of 17.6lb (8kg), finished with a 1/4" stud on one end and a 3/8" stud on the other end for attaching a strobe light, CB60 RGB 70W/RGB1200 LED video light, reflector, umbrella, SF30120Q/SF-RPBO26 softbox and other photographic equipment. You can also install your light stand attachment with a 5/8" mount onto either end of this grip arm - 【Adjustable Height】Our C stand can be adjusted in height from 5ft (153cm) to 10.5ft (320cm), accommodating different lighting needs. The center stand is equipped with a built in buffer spring to reduce the impact of sudden drops of the installed equipment and protect the equipment when adjusting the height - 【Flexible Use】Two premium and standard grip heads are crafted with 4 different mounting channels of 5/8", 1/2", 3/8", and 1/4", accepting any compatible accessories for your enhanced photography solutions. These mounting adapters enable height and angle adjustment (360° rotatable) for enhanced flexibility, with an excellent locking system for stability and safety

Model: SC320Q

- Fairy Garden Digital Content - Life Among the Trees- Step outside and make yourself at home in nature. - The Fairest Folk - Do you feel nature’s mystical pull? Embark on a special journey and become a Fairy - A Balanced Lifestyle - Prolonged negative emotions cause imbalance, and imbalance can lead to Ailments with strange effects - A Land of Enchantment - Innisgreen is a beautifully lush, green world where Sims live in harmony with nature.

Platform: EA App    Edition: Enchanted by Nature

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Color: Red

- 【Exceptional Mechanical Properties】DEEPLEE PLA PRO features a bending modulus of 2750 ± 160 MPa for excellent rigidity and shape retention. With an impact strength of 7.9 ± 1.2 kJ/m², it offers superior impact resistance - 【Up to 300mm/s Print Speed】PLA PRO 3D printing filament supports print speeds up to 300mm/s and a printing temperature range of 190-230°C, allowing your projects to be completed quickly while maintaining excellent print quality - 【Accuracy & Consistency】DEEPLEE PLA Pro 3d filaments strictly control the wire diameter tolerance, with a accurate diameter of 1.75mm and a high dimensional accuracy of +/- 0.02 mm - 【Neatly Wound & No Clogging】DEEPLEE PLA PRO 3D printer filament are neatly wound on the spool without cross-tangling, avoiding the problem of insufficient extrusion. The filament extrudes smoothly and consistently and does not clog nozzles - 【Compatible with Most FDM 3D Printers】DEEPLEE PLA filament fits with high speed and standard FDM 3D printers such as Neptune 4, Neptune 4 pro, Kobra 2, K1, K1 Max, Ender 5, M5 and more

Color: 1*orange