NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
- Ingredient & Aroma: Our raw materials are sourced from China and extracted using the traditional steam distillation method. chamomile essential oil has a light fruity and herbal scent with a warm, sweet feel - Multi Purpose: Chamomile essential oil can be used not only as a fragrance to create a cozy home environment, but also as an ingredient in skincare products to enhance skin radiance and in massages to help relax the mind and body - DIY: Add chamomile essential oil to massage oils, diffusers, cleansers, sprays, laundry detergents, cleansing balms, creams, conditioners, shampoos, body washes, bath salts. Also DIY candles, perfumes, soaps, humidifiers - Multiple Usage Scenarios: Add 1-2 drops of chamomile essential oil in the washing machine with laundry cleaning to eliminate odours, commonly used in home cleaning, shower, bathtub, toilet, garden, kitchen, sauna, spa, aromatherapy, outdoor space, car, office, bedroom, yoga - Body Massage: Dilute 1 drop of chamomile essential oil with 10 to 20 drops of a carrier oil (Sweet Almond, Grapeseed or Jojoba). Take an appropriate amount of the blended oil on your palm and apply the oil in a circular motion on the body parts that need to be massaged, which can relax the body and mind and relieve stress - Safer: The chamomile oil we make is steam distilled from the fragrant petals of Chinese chamomile flowers and tested for composition by GC/MS, MSDS, COA, IFRA, etc - Multiple Essential Oil Blends: Chamomile essential oil can be blended with lavender essential oil to better soothe the skin and aid in relaxation. Blending with sweet orange essential oil adds a fresh, fruity scent and creates a pleasant mood. It can also be blended with bergamot, rose, tea tree, rosemary, peppermint, cedarwood, frankincense and geranium - Precautions: Understand the efficacy of essential oils before use, according to the recommended amount of use, diluted use, avoid contact with sensitive areas, stored in a cool, dry place, pregnant women, skin irritation before the use of professional advice, follow the above precautions, you will be able to safely and effectively enjoy the benefits of essential oils - About HIQILI: We work with farmers in more than 30 countries around the world on sustainable development, by providing highly cost-effective plant essential oils to meet today's consumer needs
Scent: Chamomile Size: 1.01 Fl Oz (Pack of 1)
- Optimum Nutrition’s Gold Standard 100% WHEY is the world’s best-selling protein powder* designed to support your fitness journey from day one - FAST-ABSORBING whey protein with whey protein isolate as the main ingredient helps with muscle gain and supports recovery* after every training session - The ON whey protein formula is Informed Choice certified, contains naturally-occurring BCAAs and GLUTAMINE and is LOW IN SUGAR and fat - Available in a VARIETY OF SIZES and FLAVOURS: double rich chocolate, banana cream, vanilla ice cream, unflavored protein powder and more - EASY & CONVENIENT: mix one scoop in 180-240 ml of cold water; best enjoyed in the morning or/and during the 30 minutes just before or immediately after training - *Source: Euromonitor International Limited; Consumer Health 2023 edition, Sports Protein Powder category, % retail value shares, 2022 data - ** Source EFSA Journal 2010;8(10):1811; 2011;9(6):2203
- ✓ STOMACH FRIENDLY FORM OF VITAMIN C, ESTER C - Solgar Quercetin Complex with Ester C Plus is exclusively formulated by Solgar and combines the important bioflavonoid Quercetin with Ester-C and Bromelain - ✓ UNIQUE COMPLEX THAT SUPPORTS IMMUNITY - Exclusive to Solgar, Quercetin complex is a proprietary formula and contains additional natural plant bioflavonoids, powerful antioxidants that naturally accompany Vitamin C in fruits and vegetables. - ✓COMMITTED TO SUSTAINABILITY - For over 70 years we've used 100% recyclable amber glass bottles - ✓NATURAL WELLNESS - We believe that cleaner is better, we craft our vitamins and minerals in small batches to help ensure consistency and purity from bottle to bottle - ✓GOLD STANDARD - All Solgar products meet our industry recognized “Gold Standard” for excellence, made using naturally sourced ingredients and innovating since 1947
Size Name: 100 count (Pack of 1)
- The information below applies to each unit in the pack - 100 percent Complete and Balanced - Vitamins A and E - Source of Omega-6 fatty acids - No Colourants
Flavour Name: Farm Selection (Chicken, Duck, Lamb, Chicken and Turkey) Size Name: 4.08 kg (Pack of 2)
- 100 percent Complete and Balanced - Vitamins A and E - Source of Omega-6 fatty acids - No Colourants
Size Name: 4.08 kg (Pack of 1)
- COMPLETE MEAL IN A BOTTLE: Each bottle is packed with 35g of plant-based protein, 26 essential vitamins and minerals, and 400 calories, offering balanced nutrition wherever life takes you. - SMOOTH, NATURALLY DELICIOUS FLAVOUR: Enjoy a smooth, creamy texture with naturally delicious flavours. Perfect for on-the-go consumption, this ready-to-drink meal is convenient for busy mornings, post-workout recovery, or as a quick meal replacement anytime. - PREMIUM INGREDIENTS, RICH IN NUTRIENTS: Crafted with pea protein, faba bean protein, flaxseed, coconut, and tapioca, this meal shake is loaded with fibre, calcium, iron, and MCTs, supporting digestion, muscle function, metabolism, and energy levels. - SCIENCE-BACKED HEALTH BENEFITS: Packed with over 170 research-backed health benefits to help fuel you through the day. Formulated with protein and essential nutrients that support muscle growth, reduce fatigue, maintain immune function, and help care for your hair, skin, and nails. - 100% VEGAN & GLUTEN-FREE: Plant-based and free from artificial sweeteners, flavours, and colourings. Non-GMO and gluten-free, Huel Black Edition Ready-to-drink offers clean, sustainable nutrition with a taste you will love.
Flavour Name: Strawberry Banana Size Name: 500 ml (Pack of 12) Set name: Black Edition
- BRING WOW IN DEINE WASSERFLASCHE: Cold Tea Mate-Lemon verwandelt dein Wasser in eine fruchtige Erfrischung. Kalter Tee zum Aufgießen für deinen Wow-Moment beim Sport - BEWUSST GENIESSEN: Fruchtiger Geschmack nach Zitrone-Limette mit natürlichem Aroma und natürlichem Koffein, ohne Zuckerzusatz und ohne Kalorien - Zutaten enthalten von Natur aus Zucker - MIT KOFFEIN: Spritzige Erfrischung mit Koffein für Sport, Training und unterwegs - Erhöhter Koffeingehalt. Für Kinder und schwangere oder stillende Frauen nicht empfohlen - EINFACH KALT AUFGEGOSSEN: 1 Pyramidenbeutel in 500 ml kaltes Wasser geben, 8 Minuten ziehen lassen, fertig – die Beutel dürfen bequem in der Flasche bleiben, 14 Beutel je Packung - Next Gen Hydration! In 3 Schritten wird aus Wasser ganz easy Meßmer Cold Tea - auch in vielen weiteren Sorten erhältlich.
Geschmack: Sport Mate-Lemon
- 100% PURE & NATURAL MYRRH OIL: Handcraft Blends oils are exactly that! Many other oils claim that but are actually isolates and mixtures. Each oil is tested by an independent lab, so every bottle has a Quality Guarantee. - PREMIUM GRADE & QUALITY: Handcraft Blends Essential Oils are tested by an independent lab. Each oil is tested for its constituents as well as to have no fillers, additives and to be undiluted. Ideal for use in soap making, skincare & aromatherapy. - HIGH QUALITY GLASS BOTTLE AND DROPPER: Our essential oil comes in an amber glass bottle to keep out UV rays and protect the oil against sunlight. We also provide a glass dropper, so you get the exact amount of oil without any waste. - VERSATILE FOR DIY PROJECTS: Perfect for aromatherapy, massage, skin care, and DIY soap making. Essential oil is a popular ingredient in homemade soaps, body oils, and scrubs. - BOTTLED IN THE USA: Our oils are sourced from the best regions all over the world to bring you the best and finest.
Scent: Myrrh Size: 0.33 Fl Oz (Pack of 1)
- LA WHEY MÁS COMPLETA E INNOVADORA – 100% Pure Whey Protein X3 de Healthy Fusion contiene una fórmula única en el mundo de la suplementación deportiva gracias a su combinación de Whey Protein Ultra Pura con Colágeno Hidrolizado, Magnesio y Vitamina B6 de alta biodisponibilidad. Una combinación deportiva avanzada, diseñada para ofrecer un soporte integral hacia el crecimiento y la recuperación muscular, así como a la protección de articulaciones y músculos frente a lesiones y sobrecargas. - AUMENTA MASA MUSCULAR, FUERZA Y DEFINICIÓN – Aporta 43 g de proteína pura de alta calidad por dosis, activando la síntesis de proteínas musculares y suministrando 9,46 g de BCAA esenciales para reparar las fibras musculares tras el entrenamiento, acelerar el desarrollo muscular y aumentar la fuerza. - RECUPERACIÓN Y SOPORTE ARTICULAR AVANZADO – El colágeno hidrolizado aporta aminoácidos estructurales para la regeneración de músculos, tendones y cartílago, mientras que el magnesio favorece la relajación muscular, previene lesiones, calambres y reduce la fatiga. Juntos permiten entrenamientos más constantes, intensos, sostenibles y seguros. - MÁS ENERGÍA, MEJOR ABSORCIÓN Y FÁCIL DIGESTIÓN – La vitamina B6 optimiza el metabolismo de los aminoácidos, mejora la utilización real de la proteína y contribuye a un metabolismo energético normal, ayudando a reducir el cansancio y la fatiga. Fórmula de rápida disolución, sin grumos, ligera y fácil de digerir, sin provocar molestias digestivas como gases o hinchazón. - FÓRMULA DE ALTA PUREZA Y CALIDAD PREMIUM – Producto desarrollado por expertos en nutrición deportiva con ingredientes de alta pureza y biodisponibilidad. Fabricado en Europa conforme a la normativa europea vigente en materia de seguridad alimentaria (EFSA), con registro sanitario Nº 26.017412/M y bajo certificaciones de calidad BRCGS, GMP e ISO. Sin colorantes, sin azúcares añadidos y sin ingredientes innecesarios. Ideal para un uso diario seguro y eficaz.
Sabor: Doble chocolate
- FAVORECE EL CRECIMIENTO Y LA RECUPERACIÓN MUSCULAR: Gold Standard Whey con aislado de proteína de suero de rápida absorción favorece el crecimiento y la recuperación muscular después del entrenamiento* - 24g DE PROTEÍNA POR RACIÓN: Nuestra galardonada fórmula contiene BCAA y glutamina presentes de forma natural, además de 24g de proteína de suero de alta calidad y rápida absorción; es apta para vegetarianos y baja en azúcares - INGREDIENTE PRINCIPAL: Aislado de proteína de suero filtrado para ofrecer una mayor pureza; el aislado de proteína de suero es el ingrediente principal de Gold Standard 100% Whey - FÁCIL DE MEZCLAR Y DIGERIR: La fórmula cremosa y de fácil digestión de Gold Standard Whey se disuelve fácilmente, sin grumos; mezcla un cacito en 180–240 ml de agua fría, leche o la bebida que prefieras - CALIDAD DE CONFIANZA: La proteína de suero en polvo más vendida del mundo°, reconocida por su calidad y consistencia; descubre todos nuestros deliciosos sabores - EL ENVASE PUEDE VARIAR: ¡Nueva imagen, la misma calidad de siempre! Incluye cacito dosificador
Sabor: French Vanilla Crème
- Estas lentes están diseñadas para uso diario y deben desecharse después de cada utilización. - Deseche la lente una vez retirada del ojo - Material: Nesofilcon A con contenido de agua del 78% - Siga siempre las recomendaciones de uso y reemplazo proporcionadas por su profesional de la visión.
Dioptría (PWR/D): 1 Dioptrías Diámetro: 14.2 Milímetros Unidades: 30